What if the bitcoin bubble bursts?

MARKETS frequently froth and bubble, but the boom in bitcoin, a digital currency, is extraordinary. Although its price is down from an all-time high of $2,420 on May 24th, it has more than doubled in just two months. Anyone clever or lucky enough to have bought $1,000 of bitcoins in July 2010, when the price stood at $0.05, would now have a stash worth $46m. Other cryptocurrencies have soared, too, giving them a collective market value of about $80bn.

Ascents this steep are rarely sustainable. More often than not, the word “bitcoin” now comes attached to the word “bubble”. But the question of what has driven up the price is important. Is this just a speculative mania, or is it evidence that bitcoin is taking on a more substantial role as a medium of exchange or a store of value? Put another way, is bitcoin like a tulip, gold or the dollar—or is it something else entirely?

Start with the case that this is nothing more than a virtual tulipmania, a speculative hysteria in which a rising price encourages ever more buyers, no matter what the asset is. Bitcoin’s recent trajectory certainly seems manic. Retail investors have piled in. Many already familiar with bitcoin investing have moved on to bet on alternatives, such as Ethereum, and “initial coin offerings” (ICOs), in which firms issue digital tokens of their own.

It looks like a scammers’ paradise, yet unlike tulips, bitcoins have real uses. They now buy everything from pizzas to computers. So if a tulip isn’t the right analogue, how about gold? Bitcoins certainly seem to bear more than a passing resemblance. Goldbugs mistrust governments and their money-printing tendencies; so too do bitcoinesseurs: no central bank is in charge of bitcoin. But a store of value should not bounce around as much as this one does: bitcoin swung from more than $1,100 in late 2013 to less than $200 a year later, before climbing, in fits and starts, to its current dizzying heights.

Rather than being just a form of digital gold, bitcoin aspires to loftier goals: to be a means of exchange like the euro, yen or the dollar. Regulators are starting to take bitcoin seriously. Some of the price surge can be explained by Japan’s decision to treat bitcoin more like any other currency. Yet the bitcoin system is operating at its limits and its developers cannot agree on how to increase the number of exchanges the system is able to handle. As a result, a transaction now costs nearly $4 in fees on average and takes many tedious hours to confirm. For convenience, a dollar bill beats it hands down.

Not so dotty

If bitcoin and the other cryptocurrencies are unlike anything else, what are they? The best comparison may be with the internet and the dotcom boom it created in the late 1990s. Like the internet, cryptocurrencies both embody innovation and give rise to more of it. They are experiments in themselves of how to maintain a public database (the “blockchain”) without anybody in particular, a bank, say, being in charge. Georgia, for instance, is using the technology to secure government records (see article). And blockchains are platforms for further experiments.

Take Ethereum, for example. It allows all kinds of projects, from video games to online markets, to raise funds by issuing tokens—essentially private money that can be traded and used within these projects. Although such ICOs need to be handled with care, they could also generate intriguing inventions. Fans hope that they will give rise to decentralised upstarts taking aim at today’s oligopolistic technology giants, such as Amazon and Facebook.

This may seem like a dangerous way to generate innovation. Investors could lose their shirts; a crash in one asset class could spread to others, creating wobbles in the financial system. But in the case of cryptocurrencies such risks seem limited. It is hard to argue that those buying cryptocurrencies are unaware of the risks. And since they are still a fairly self-contained system, contagion is unlikely.

If there is such a thing as a healthy bubble, this is it. To be sure, regulators should watch out that cryptocurrencies do not become even more of a conduit for criminal activity, such as drug dealing. But they should think twice before coming down hard, particularly on ICOs. Being too spiky would not just prick a bubble, but also prevent a lot of the useful innovation that is likely to come about at the same time.

Countries Where Bitcoin Is Legal & Illegal

The peer-to-peer digital currency Bitcoin made its debut in 2009 and with it ushered in a new era of cryptocurrency. Today, there are more than 500 different cryptocurrencies to choose from, but Bitcoin still enjoys the first mover advantage. While tax authorities, enforcement agencies, and regulators are still exploring the phenomenon, one pertinent question is—is bitcoin legal or illegal? The answer is, it depends on the location and activity of the user.

Bitcoins are not issued, endorsed, or regulated by any central bank. Instead, they are created through a computer-generated process known as mining. In addition to being a cryptocurrency unrelated to any government, Bitcoin is also necessarily a peer-to-peer payment system since it does not exist in any physical form and must be exchanged online. As such, it offers a convenient way to conduct cross-border transactions with no exchange rate fees. It also allows users to remain anonymous. (Related reading The Risks Of Buying Bitcoin)

Consumers have greater ability now to purchase goods and services with bitcoins directly at online retailers and and using bitcoin-purchased gift cards at bricks and mortar stores. The currency is being traded on exchanges, and companies have even made investments in virtual currency-related ventures. These activities portray a technically well-established virtual currency system, but there is still no uniform international legal law covering the use of bitcoin. (For more see Stores Where You Can Buy Things With Bitcoins)

Countries that Say Yes to Bitcoin

The fact that bitcoin can be anonymously used to conduct transactions between any account holders, anywhere and anytime across the globe, makes it attractive to criminal elements. They may use bitcoins to buy or sell illegal goods like drugs or weapons. Most countries have not clearly made determinations on the legality of bitcoin, preferring instead to take a wait-and-see approach. Some countries have indirectly assented to the legal usage of bitcoins by enacting some regulatory oversight. However, bitcoin is never legally acceptable as a substitute for a country’s legal tender.

The United States

The United States has taken a generally positive approach towards bitcoin. At the same time, it has several government agencies working on preventing or reducing the use of bitcoin for illegal transactions. Prominent businesses like Dish Network (DISH), Dell, and Overstock.com (OSTK) welcome payment in bitcoin. The digital currency has also made its way to the U.S. derivatives markets, which speaks about its increasingly legitimate presence.

The U.S. Department of Treasury’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) has been issuing guidance on bitcoin since the beginning of 2013. The Treasury has defined bitcoin not as currency, but as a money services business (MSB). This places it under the Bank Secrecy Act which requires exchanges and payment processors to adhere to certain responsibilities like reporting, registration, and record keeping. In addition, bitcoin is categorized as property for taxation purposes by the Internal Revenue Service (IRS). (Related Bitcoin: Current And Future Legal Framework)

Canada

Like its southern neighbor the United States, Canada maintains a generally bitcoin-friendly stance while also ensuring the cryptocurrency is not used for money laundering. Bitcoin is viewed as a commodity by the Canada Revenue Agency (CRA). This means that bitcoin transactions are viewed as barter transactions, and the income generated is considered as business income. The taxation also depends whether the individual has a buying-selling business or is only concerned with investing.

Canada considers bitcoin exchanges to be money service businesses. This brings them under the purview of the anti-money laundering (AML) laws. Bitcoin exchanges need to register with Financial Transactions and Reports Analysis Centre (FINTRAC), report any suspicious transactions, abide by the compliance plans, and even keep certain records. In addition, the Canadian government has tasked the Senate Banking Committee with drafting guidelines for the legislature of virtual currencies by July of 2015.

Australia

Australia allows entities to trade, mine, or buy bitcoin. The Australian Taxation Office (ATO) considers bitcoin transactions barter arrangement subject to appropriate taxes depending upon the use and user (full document).

The European Union

Though the European Union (EU) has followed developments in cryptocurrency, it has not issued any official decision on legality, acceptance, or regulation. In the absence of central guidance, individual EU countries have developed their own bitcoin stances. A few nations are allowing bitcoin while others are either undecided or issuing warnings.

In Finland, the Central Board of Taxes (CBT) has given bitcoin a value-added tax exempt status by classifying it as a financial service. Bitcoin is treated as a commodity in Finland and not as a currency. The Federal Public Service Finance of Belgium has also made bitcoin exempt from value added tax (VAT). In Cyprus, bitcoins are not controlled or regulated but are not illegal either. The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) in the United Kingdom (UK) has a pro-bitcoin stance and wants the regulatory environment to be supportive of the digital currency. Bitcoin is under certain tax regulations in UK. The National Revenue Agency (NRA) of Bulgaria has also brought bitcoin under its existing taw laws. Germany is open to bitcoin; it is considered legal but taxed differently depending upon whether the authorities are dealing with exchanges, miners, enterprises, or users.

Countries That Say No to Bitcoin

While bitcoin is fairly welcomed in many parts of the world, there are few countries which are wary of bitcoin because of its volatility, decentralized nature, perceived threat to the current monetary system, and link to illicit activities like drug dealing and money laundering. Some of these nations have outright banned the digital currency while others have tried to cut off any support from the banking and financial system essential for its trading and usage.

Iceland

The island nation has been exercising stringent capital controls as a part of its monetary policies adopted after the global economic crisis of 2008. It seeks to protect the outflow of Icelandic currency from the country. Under the same pretext, foreign exchange trading with bitcoin is banned in Iceland as the cryptocurrency is not compatible with the country’s Foreign Exchange Act. Interestingly, a new cryptocurrency called Auroracoin has lauched out of Iceland. Its founders wished to create a viable alternative to the present Icelandic banking system.

Vietnam

From the beginning, Vietnam’s government and its state bank have maintained that bitcoin is a not a legitimate payment method. After a few initial rounds of public rejoinders against the use of bitcoin, Vietnam made it illegal for both financial institutions and citizens to deal in bitcoin. It links the cryptocurrency to criminal activities such as money laundering.

Bolivia

The central bank of Bolivia has banned the use of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

Kyrgyzstan

Using bitcoin and altcoin as a payment form is illegal in Kyrgyzstan.

Ecuador

Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies were banned in Ecuador by a majority vote in the national assembly. However, the nation has plans to create its own cryptocurrency in the future.

Russia

The legality of bitcoin in Russia is disputed. Russia’s Ministry of Finance is hoping to pass a law to ban bitcoin sometime this year.

China

All banks and other financial institutions like payment processors are prohibited from transacting or dealing in bitcoin. Individuals, however, are free to deal in bitcoin between themselves. Bitcoin culture is thriving in China. It continues to be one of the worlds larges bitcoin markets. (Related reading How Bitcoin Can Change The World)

The Bottom Line

Although Bitcoin is now five years into existence, countries still do not have explicit systems that restrict, regulate, or ban the cryptocurrency. The decentralized and anonymous nature of bitcoin has challenged many governments on how to allow legal use while preventing criminal transactions. Most countries are still analyzing ways to properly regulate the the cryptocurrency. Overall, bitcoin remains in a grey area as the technological leap has left lawmakers far behind.

What is Bitcoin Mining

If you've ever wondered where Bitcoin comes from and how it goes into circulation, the answer is that it gets "mined" into existence. Bitcoin mining serves to both add transactions to the block chain and to release new Bitcoin. The mining process involves compiling recent transactions into blocks and trying to solve a computationally difficult puzzle. The first participant who solves the puzzle gets to place the next block on the block chain and claim the rewards. The rewards incentivize mining and include both the transaction fees (paid to the miner in the form of Bitcoin) as well as the newly released Bitcoin.

Security of the Bitcoin Network

Bitcoin mining is decentralized. Anyone with an internet connection and the proper hardware can participate. The security of the Bitcoin network depends on this decentralization since the Bitcoin network makes decisions based on consensus. If there is disagreement about whether a block should be included in the block chain, the decision is effectively made by a simple majority consensus, that is, if greater than half of the mining power agrees.

If an individual person or organization has control of greater than half of the Bitcoin network's mining power, then they have the power to corrupt the block chain. The concept of someone controlling more than half of the mining power and using it to corrupt the block chain is known as a "51% attack". How costly such an attack would be to carry out depends largely on how much mining power is involved in the Bitcoin network. Thus the security of the Bitcoin network depends in part on how much mining power is employed.

The amount of mining power that gets used in the network depends directly on the incentives miners have, that is, the block reward and transaction fees.

Block Reward

The amount of new bitcoin released with each mined block is called the block reward. The block reward is halved every 210,000 blocks, or roughly every four years. The block reward started at 50 bitcoin in 2009, and is now 25 bitcoin in 2014. This diminishing block reward will result in a total release of bitcoin that approaches 21 million. According to current Bitcoin protocol, 21 million is the cap and no more will be mined after that number has been attained.

As of today, block rewards provide the vast majority of the incentive for miners. At the time of writing, for the previous 24 hours, transaction fees represented 0.3% of mining revenue.

Transaction Fees

As the block reward diminishes over time, eventually approaching zero, the miners will be less incentivized to mine bitcoin for the block reward. This could be a major security problem for Bitcoin, unless the incentives provided by the block reward are replaced by transaction fees.

Transaction fees are some amount of Bitcoin that are included in a transaction as a reward for the miner who mines the block in which the transaction is included. Transaction fees are voluntary on the part of the person sending a transaction. Whether or not a transaction is included in a block by a miner is also voluntary. Thus, users sending transactions can use transaction fees to incentive miners to verify their transactions. The version of the Bitcoin client released by the core development team, which can be used to send transactions, has fee minimum rules by default.

Mining Difficulty

How hard is it to mine Bitcoins? Well, that depends on how much effort is being put into mining across the network. Following the protocol laid out in the software, the Bitcoin network automatically adjusts the difficulty of the mining every 2016 blocks, or roughly every two weeks. It adjusts itself with the aim of keeping the rate of block discovery constant. Thus if more computational power is employed in mining, then the difficulty will adjust upwards to make mining harder. And if computational power is taken off of the network, the opposite happens. The difficulty adjusts downward to make mining easier.

The higher the difficulty level, the less profitable mining is for miners. Thus, the more people mining, the less profitable mining is for each participant. The total payout depends on the price of Bitcoin, the block reward, and the size of the transaction fees, but the more people mining, the smaller the slice of that pie each person gets.

Mining Hardware

Anyone with access to the internet and suitable hardware can participate in mining. In the earliest days of Bitcoin, mining was done with CPUs from normal desktop computers. Graphics cards, or graphics processing units (GPUs), are more effective at mining than CPUs and as Bitcoin gained popularity, GPUs became dominant. Eventually, hardware known as an ASIC (which stands for Application-Specific Integrated Circuit) was designed specifically for mining Bitcoin. The first ones were released in 2013 and have been improved upon since, with more efficient designs coming to market. Today, mining is so competitive, it can only be done profitably with the latest ASICs. When using CPUs, GPUs, or even the older ASICs, the cost of energy consumption is greater than the revenue generated.

As ASICs are advanced and more participants enter the mining space, the difficulty has shot up exponentially. A lot of this activity has been incentivized by the large price increase Bitcoin experienced in 2013 and speculation that the price may rise further. There is also political power within the Bitcoin ecosystem that comes with controlling mining power, since that mining power essentially gives you a vote in whether to accept changes to the protocol.

There are many companies which make mining hardware. Some of the more prominent ones are Bitfury, HashFast, KnCMiner and Butterfly Labs. Companies such as MegaBigPower, CloudHashing, and CEX.io also allow customers to lease hosted mining hardware.

Mining Pools

Mining rewards are paid to the miner who discovers a solution to the puzzle first, and the probability that a participant will be the one to discover the solution is equal to the portion of the total mining power on the network. Participants with a small percentage of the mining power stand a very small chance of discovering the next block on their own. For instance, a mining card that one could purchase for a couple thousand dollars would represent less than 0.001% of the network's mining power. With such a small chance at finding the next block, it could be a long time before that miner finds a block, and the difficulty going up makes things even worse. The miner may never recoup their investment. The answer to this problem is mining pools. Mining pools are operated by third parties and coordinate groups of miners. By working together in a pool and sharing the payouts amongst participants, miners can get a steady flow of bitcoin starting the day they activate their miner. Statistics on some of the mining pools can be seen on Blockchain.info.

Electricity Costs

The main operational costs for miners are the hardware and the electricity cost, both for running the miners but also for providing adequate cooling and ventilation. Some major mining operations have been purposely located near cheap electricity. The largest mining operation in North America, run by MegaBigPower, is located on by the Columbia River in Washington State, where hydroelectric power is plentiful and electricity prices are the lowest in the nation. And CloudHashing runs a large mining operation in Iceland, where electricity generated from hydroelectric and geothermal power sources is also renewable and cheap, and where the cold northern climate helps provide cooling.

Regulation

Earlier this year, the IRS issued tax guidance regarding Bitcoin and said that income from mining could constitute self-employment income and be subjected to tax. FinCEN, the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network, is a bureau of the U.S. Treasury that collects and analyzes data on financial transactions with the aim of fighting financial crimes, especially money laundering and terrorist financing. FinCEN has issued guidance saying that bitcoin miners are not considered Money Transmitters under the Bank Secrecy Act and recently clarified that providers of cloud mining services are also not considered Money Transmitters.

The Bottom Line

Bitcoin mining is the means by which new Bitcoin is brought into circulation, the total of which is to be capped at 21 million BTC. Miners are in an arms race to deploy the latest bitcoin mining chips and often choose to locate near cheap electricity. As more computing power is used in mining, the difficulty of the puzzles increases, keeping profitability in check.

The case for investors sticking out the volatility in bitcoin and ethereum

Investors should not be put off by the price volatility for cryptocurrencies like bitcoin and ethereum because these digital assets are still very new and offer nearly unparalleled returns.

On Tuesday, ethereum's price fell below $200 for the first time since May 30; the cryptocurrency has fallen more than 50 percent since hitting an all-time high of over $400 in early June. Meanwhile in May, a price correction for bitcoin wiped off nearly $4 billion in its market value.

Bobby Lee, CEO of Chinese bitcoin exchange BTCC, told the gyration in prices was normal as the true value for these assets have yet to be discovered.

"It's not a problem," he said on the sidelines of the Rise conference in Hong Kong. "If you think about it, the volatility is natural for an asset class that is so new. There's no price discovery for it (yet)."

He explained as people have yet to discover the true value of an asset like bitcoin, they tend to trade them at a certain, discounted level before the market realizes it could be worth more and then the price jumps.

Cryptocurrencies are partly becoming more popular because countries and companies are taking a closer look at the technology that underpins them: blockchain. Japan, for example, approved bitcoin as a legal payment method in April.

"We're now sort of at ... a tipping point, where people are now considering bitcoin or ethereum or digital assets as more mainstream," Dave Chapman, managing director of Hong Kong-based commodities and digital assets trading house Octagon Strategy. "A lot of the people that we service are actually very comfortable with having 1 percent of their net worth into bitcoin or ethereum."

To them, it's "just a natural extension of all their diversification of their portfolio" that includes other asset classes such as properties, precious metals or index funds.

Chapman added that while volatility may be off-putting, the returns on digital asset classes remain extremely attractive to investors. He said, "There's no other asset class in the world that could've given you the historic performance of this sector ... the historic performance, which is obviously not representative of future earnings, ... does appeal to a lot of people."

For context: $100 of bitcoin bought in 2010 is worth more than $75 million in 2017.

Analysts have made varied predictions about where prices and market capitalization for digital assets are headed. BTCC's Lee he expected the market cap for bitcoin to hit at least $1 trillion, if not more, by 2025.

"I think it's going to go to at least $1 trillion, if not maybe $10 trillion in the next five to ten years," he said.

Data from industry website CoinDesk showed the current market cap for bitcoin is about $38.55 billion on a supply of about 16 million in circulation. The total supply of bitcoins is limited to 21 million. "In a grand of scheme of things it's nothing. Many, many companies are worth way more than that," Lee said. Tech companies like Alibaba and Apple have their market cap at hundreds of billions of dollars.

Regulation may help lend more credibility to this market as an asset class: major governments including those in Japan, Russia and China are looking at introducing new rules.

In the end, Chapman said that while many investors may not yet be fully convinced about the potential of digital currencies, they will still invest into them because of the fear of missing out.

"We get a lot of people who are like 'You know what? I still don't believe in this experiment — I'm not really a believer, but I'm tired of sitting on the sidelines and missing out.'"

Bitcoin, Here's all that you need to know about the virtual currency

The value of bitcoin surged above $1,100 on Thursday as the digital unit continues a dizzying rise that made it the best-performing currency of 2016.

Analysts have suggested a host of reasons for its appreciation, from global uncertainty and a strengthening dollar to demonetisation in India and capital controls in China.

Here are some key facts about bitcoin.

Bitcoin is a virtual currency that is created from computer code. Unlike a real-world currency such as the US dollar or the euro, it has no central bank and is not backed by any government.

Instead, its community of users control and regulate it. Advocates say this makes it an efficient alternative to traditional currencies because it is not subject to the whims of a state that may wish to devalue its money to inflate away debt.

Just like other currencies, bitcoins can be exchanged for goods and services -- or for other currencies -- provided the other party is willing to accept them.

Bitcoin was launched in 2009 as a bit of encrypted software written by someone using the Japanese-sounding name Satoshi Nakamoto.

Last year secretive Australian entrepreneur Craig Wright said he was the creator, but some have raised doubts over his claim.

Other digital currencies followed but bitcoin was by far the most popular.

Transactions happen when heavily encrypted codes are passed across a computer network. The network as a whole monitors and verifies the transaction in a process that is intended to ensure no single bitcoin can be spent in more than one place simultaneously.

Users can "mine" bitcoins -- bring new ones into being -- by having their computers run complicated and increasingly difficult processes.

However, the model is limited and only 21 million units will ever be created.

Like any other currency, it fluctuates. But unlike most real-world analogues, bitcoin's value has swung wildly in a short period.

When the unit first came into existence it was worth a few US cents. Its price topped out at $1,165.89 on the Bitcoin Price Index, an average of major exchanges, in 2013.

At around 0430 GMT Thursday, a single bitcoin was worth about $1,140 on the BPI.

There are presently more than 16 million units in circulation. Some economists point to the fact that because it is limited its price will increase over the long run, making it less useful as a currency and more a vehicle to store value, like gold.

But detractors point to bitcoin's volatility, security issues and other weaknesses as flaws that will eventually undermine it.

Analysts have suggested a number of reasons, including investors buying bitcoins as a hedge against currencies that are weakening against the US dollar.

Other reasons include the currency turning into a virtual safe haven at a time of global economic uncertainty sparked by factors such as Donald Trump's US election victory, as well as country-specific issues such as the chaotic withdrawal of high-value notes in India, and Chinese controls on the purchase of foreign currency.

The currency may also have been strengthened by the rise of digital payments and the dwindling supply of new bitcoins.

Some commentators say that like many technological developments, the first iteration of a product will encounter difficulties, possibly terminal ones. But the trail it blazes might smooth the way for the next crypto currency.

Problems include an apparent vulnerability to theft when bitcoins are stored in digital wallets.

A major Hong Kong-based bitcoin exchange suspended trading last year after $65 million in the virtual unit was reportedly stolen by hackers.

The virtual currency movement also faces legitimacy issues because of the way it allows for anonymous transactions -- the very thing that libertarian adopters like about it.

Detractors say bitcoin's use on the underground Silk Road website, where users could buy drugs and guns with it, is proof that it is a bad thing.

If bitcoin does become more widely accepted, experts say, it could lead to more government regulations, which would negate the very attraction of the bitcoin concept.